I always stress
the idea of 'expectation' as it applies to casino gaming because
understanding the concept will help you stop gambling and hopefully
turn you into an investor at the tables. By definition, an investor
expects to make a profit so you cannot be an investor if you
play at games where there is a negative expectation. If you
bet $10 on the Pass line at craps, you'll either win $10 or
lose $10, but your 'expectation' is to lose 14 cents on every
hand. That's because the house has a built-in edge of 1.4% on
that bet and if you play it frequently, your average loss will
work out to be 14 cents per decision. In the short term you
might win a lot of money, but play it long enough and the house
edge will eventually have its effect. Since the average craps
table produces about 60 decisions an hour, the cost per hour
of betting $10 on the pass line will work out to be -- in the
long run -- about 60 X 14 cents = $8.40.
Now let's look
at this concept from the point of view of a positive expectation
situation like card counting at Blackjack. If your average bet
is $12 and the average advantage you have over the house is
1.25%, your expectation is to win $12 X .0125 = $.15 per hand.
Yes, that's 15 cents per hand. At a rate of 60 hands an hour,
you can expect to make -- in the long run -- about 60 X 15 cents
= $9.00 an hour. But, if you can increase the number of hands
you play per hour to, say, 80 hands, you've raised your expectation
to 80 X 15 cents = $12.00 an hour. The only other way to make
more money is to either raise the size of your average bet or
increase your edge over the casino. The bet size is just a function
of your bankroll (and your ability to continue 'fooling' the
casino into believing you are just another gambler and not a
card counter) and the advantage is mostly a function of the
casino's rules for their Blackjack game. I will address both
these issues in future lessons, so for now let's focus on increasing
the number of hands you play in an hour.
More Hands
Mean More Money
If you are the
only player at a six-deck game, you can play at a rate of about
200 hands an hour. With all else remaining equal, that will
raise your expectation to 200 X 15 cents = $30 an hour -- a
very healthy increase. The problem here is that I want you to
get up and walk away whenever the true count drops below M1,
so 200 hands an hour is possible only if you get one of those
shoes where the count stays positive AND if you are fast enough
to keep the count while your playing at this rate. Moving when
the deck goes bad is a must, since it's cheaper to not play
at all rather than play at a game where the house has an edge
over you.
But 200 hands
an hour is a worthy goal, so continue practicing with your single-deck
countdown in an effort to build your speed to a point where
you can go through a deck in under 20 seconds. When you can
do that and compute the true count and play perfect basic strategy,
you should play one-on-one whenever possible. That may mean
that you'll have to go to the casino at 2 AM on a Monday, but
it will be worth it. Just remember that increasing your rate
of play will increase your hourly standard deviation, so don't
be surprised if you lose $400 or more in an hour's play; your
risk hasn't increased but you have -- in effect -- 'compressed'
your time factor. Dealers often tell me that a player "can't
win" one-on-one, but they're wrong. Their misconception in this
regard comes from the fact that because more hands are being
played, the swings are bigger and dealers usually remember the
big losers and forget the big winners. As an investor, it is
in your best interest to play as many hands an hour as possible,
since your expectation is to win 15 cents a hand.
THE
GOAL OF THE PROFESSIONAL PLAYER IS TO PUT IN AS MUCH QUALITY
PLAYING TIME AS POSSIBLE; WIN OR LOSS AMOUNTS ARE SECONDARY.
BY PLAYING AND BETTING CORRECTLY, THE $$$ WILL COME WITH TIME.
A Winning Attitude
As I've said before,
the wins at Blackjack come in 'chunks', so you shouldn't be
concerned when you have a losing session, nor should you feel
invincible when you win. A proper mental attitude eliminates
the highs and lows of the game (thus making it very boring --
at least in my opinion) but it enables you to play a solid ,
unemotional game. When I have a losing session (on average,
35% of the time), I just go away knowing that the casino will
take good care of the money and I'll eventually come back and
get it. 600 hands of play means I've 'earned' 600 times my expectation
per hand so I just need to keep going to work and my paycheck
will eventually reflect my earnings. To put it simply, if you
are playing a winning game, it isn't a matter of 'if' you will
win, merely a matter of 'when'.
So let the ice-water
begin to flow in your veins -- as one author put it, "steely
blue eyes will do." Emotion has no place in card-counting; accuracy
and patience are the only requirements for getting the $$$.
Good Online Casinos
Homework
Get an old
deck of cards and a marker pen. For those of you playing at 6-deck
games, write the number "1/2" on the back of one card, "1" on
the next card, "1 1/2" on the third card and continue up to 5
by increments of one-half. Now , number the backs of 20 more cards
individually from 1 to 20. Shuffle both piles (separately) face
up so you can't see the numbers and turn over the top card from
the first pile. This will represent the number of decks in the
discard tray. For example, if it's the "2 1/2" card, it represents
2 1/2 decks in the discard tray, so that must mean there are 3
1/2 decks left in the shoe. Now begin turning over the cards from
the second pile. These represent the running count and we want
to practice computing the true count, so if the first card is
"8", the true count is 8 divided by 3 1/2 = 2 (remember, we round
down to be conservative). Keep going through the running count
cards while the 'decks' card remains the same. When you've gone
through all the running count cards, change the 'decks' card and
do it again.
This exercise
will help speed your ability to compute the true count accurately.
Those of you who will be playing single deck just need to make
a card for 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 decks and running-count cards from
1 to 10, but you will practice the same way.
I usually demonstrate
this, instead of writing it out, so if it's confusing, please
don't hesitate to e-mail me and I'll explain it further. As
you do this exercise, concentrate on accuracy and remember to
be conservative in computing the true count.
