While almost all
Blackjack games are ultimately beatable, the rewards to be gained
from marginal situations do not adequately compensate you for
your time and risk. Therefore, you must evaluate a game in several
ways before playing it. Two primary areas of concern are the
house rules of the game, including the number of decks used
and the placement of the cut-card, what we call "penetration."
Many rule changes
require a change in your basic strategy, so don't forget about
the "Basic Strategy Engine" which we linked in lesson 1. Rule
changes may also affect your betting schedule, so if you have
any doubts about what to do, e-mail me.
Effect of Rule
Variations on the Player's Edge
(Assume 6 decks,
double on any first two cards, no double after splitting, resplit
all pairs, except Aces, insurance is available and the dealer
stands on Ace-6. This yields a -.54% advantage to the player.)
| Changes
which help the player |
Change
in the edge |
| Double aftere
split |
+.14% |
| Resplit Aces |
+.07% |
| Early surrender
vs. all |
+.70% |
| Early surrender
vs 10 0nly |
+.30% |
| Late surrender |
+.08% |
| Single Deck |
+.50% |
| Two Decks |
+.20% |
| Four Decks |
+.05% |
| Changes
which hurt the player |
Changes
in edge |
| Dealer hits
A-6 |
-.20% |
| Double only
on 11 |
-.46% |
| Double only
on 10,11 |
-.09% |
| Double only
9, 10,11 |
-.09% |
| No respliting
pairs |
-.04% |
| No insurance
(if you are counting cards) |
-.40% |
To determine the
casino's edge over you at the beginning of a shoe, just add
or subtract the rules variations from the 'base' game listed
above. For example, if you play a double deck game which has
the same rules as the base game, the casino advantage is computed
as follows
| Base game
-.54% |
| Two Decks
+.20% |
| _____________________ |
| Player edge
-.34% |
Effect of Deck
Penetration
How far the dealer
goes into the deck(s) before shuffling can have a major effect
on your winnings. The reason is that with a shallow penetration,
the 'high' counts which enable you to bet more occur less often
in decks where the shuffle comes early. The table below shows
how often counts will occur on a percentage basis at varying
degrees of penetration.
| Percent
Occurrence at... |
| True Count |
50% |
65% |
75% |
85% penetration |
| +1 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
| +2 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
| +3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
| +4 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
4 |
| +5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| +6 |
.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| +7 |
0 |
.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
| +8 |
0 |
0 |
.5 |
1 |
| +9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
.5 |
| +10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
.5 |
Let's examine
what I'm trying to say here. If you play at a game with only
50% penetration, out of every 100 hands, only 29 will have,
on average, a true count of 1 or better. Since it requires a
true count of 1 to get even with the house, only 14 will be
hands on which you have an advantage. Now look at the stats
for a game with 85% penetration. Here, about 37.5% of the hands
will be at breakeven or better and almost a quarter will be
hands on which you have an advantage.
YOU ARE WASTING
YOUR TIME AND MONEY IF YOU PLAY AT A GAME WITH LESS THAN 65%
PENETRATION.
Even if a game
doesn't offer the best rules, it can still be beaten if good
penetration is available. Remember that you should leave a game
when the count drops below a true of minus 1 so that you spend
most of your playing time making bets in what I call the 'profit
zone.'
Good Online Casinos
Homework
Calculate the player
starting advantage for the following:
- Single deck,
double only on 10 and 11and the dealer hits A-6. Resplits
(except Aces) are permitted and insurance is available.
- Six decks,
dealer stands on A-6, double any first two cards, double after
split is allowed, resplitting permitted, including Aces and
insurance is available.
- Two decks,
double on any first two cards, no resplitting of pairs, no
double after split allowed, late surrender and insurance is
available.
I'll post the
correct answers to this quiz next time.
