The most powerful
(legal) means of overcoming the casino's edge in Blackjack is
to vary your bets according to the true count. Additional gains
of .2 to .3% are available to those who also vary the play of
their hands according to the true count. You undoubtedly have
had situations where the count was sky-high and just knew that
hitting that 12 against the dealer's 3 was going to get you
a face card. There is a point, as measured by true count, where
standing with a 12 against a 3 is more profitable than hitting.
This is called a 'basic strategy variation' and you'll learn
a lot of them in this series.
Basic Strategy
Variations
Modifying the
play of your hand according to the true count will occur about
10% of the time. Should the count drop, you will double less,
hit 'stiff' hands more and split pairs less often. As the count
goes up, you will double more often, hit 'stiffs' less and split
pairs more. For each basic strategy play, there is only one
variation. For example, the variation for the hand 10, 6 versus
10 is to stand instead of hit; you would never double and you
obviously may not split. Another example is 5,4 versus 2. Basic
strategy says to hit, but if the count is high enough, you would
double this hand. A good example on the minus side is A-2 versus
5; basic strategy says to double, but if the count is below
0, you should just hit. The easy way to remember something like
that is "Double Ace-2 vs. 5 at 0 or higher." Broken down into
the 'shorthand' of a flashcard it is A-2 vs. 5 = 0. (Yes, we'll
be going back to our old friends, the flashcards.)
The Power
of Basic Strategy Variations
The value of any
variation is determined by how often it will, on average, be
used. If you play 100,000 hands of Blackjack a year ( about
20 hours a week, year round), you can expect to see a hand of
16 vs. 10 about 3500 times (3.5%). That's actually the number
1 non-insurance situation. Any variation here has considerable
value, simply because you'll be using it relatively often. Conversely,
you will receive 9,9 vs. 2 only 43 times in that 100,000-hand
sample, so the variation here is of little value, because you'll
rarely use it. The frequency of hands allows us to prioritize
the learning of basic strategy variations.
One of the most
important variations from basic strategy is the insurance bet.
Since the dealer will show an Ace as an up card about 7.5% of
the time, knowing when it's profitable to take insurance is
very important. If you are playing at a six deck game, insurance
is worthwhile when the true count is 3 or higher. You should
always make the insurance bet at that point, regardless of what
cards you're holding, since it has no relationship with your
hand. The High/Low counting system has an 'Insurance Efficiency'
of 80% which means that 8 out of 10 times you'll be doing the
right thing when you make an insurance bet based on the true
count.
As I mentioned
earlier, considerable value is gained by learning those variations
which involve starting hands of 12-16 vs. any up card, since
those are the hands you'll see most often. In fact, fully 54%
of all your hands will be 'stiff' at some point in the playing.
This is a good place to make an important point basic strategy
variations apply not just to your starting hands, but also to
hands composed of 3 or more cards. You will stand on A, 2, 10,
3 versus 10 if the count is 0 or higher, as well as a hand of
10, 6. Doubling (or not doubling) is next in importance and
splitting/not splitting pairs is least important.
The Value
of Basic Strategy Variations
It's safe to say
that utilizing these variations will increase your winnings
by 10% in the six-deck game. But there's a major side-benefit
to them as well. By using these variations, you'll look more
like a 'gambler' in the casino. Hitting 16 against 10 some of
the time and standing on it at other times is typical gambler
behavior. For those casino supervisors who know proper basic
strategy (damn few!), seeing you double A,7 versus 2 is crazy,
just as standing with 15 against a 10 is 'chicken'. Yet, all
of those are -- at certain counts -- the correct play.
If you play at
a single-deck game, the value of variations to basic strategy
soars to 25% or more. If you spend any time at those games,
you must learn them.
In the next lesson,
I'll show you how to learn these variation
As always,
if you have any questions, e-mail me at
aceten1@mindspring.com
and Ill get back to you ASAP.
