A Few Words
on Single Deck
In the previous
lesson, I taught you how to figure the "true count" for a multi-deck
game, but I want to emphasize that the concept of true count
also applies to single-deck games as well. The conversion is
done a bit differently, but the result is the same; you end
up with a standardized count per remaining deck. If you see
just one card in a single-deck game, a 5 for example, you now
have a "running count" of 1 and a true count of one. That, of
course, is because there's only one deck in the game to begin
with and we determine the true count by dividing the running
count by the number of remaining decks. If, after playing several
hands the running count is 6 and there's three-fourths of a
deck left to be played, we must divide the running count by
.75 in order to determine the true count. In this instance,
the true count is 8. If we were at the halfway point of the
deck, the true count would be 6 divided by .50 = 12. Got the
concept of that? In a single-deck game, you have to divide by
fractions, and that isn't easy to do, so all you single-deck
counters need to practice this in order to figure it properly
when you play.
Betting With
the True Count
For each increase
of 1 in the true count as figured by the Hi / Lo counting method,
the player's advantage increases by about .5% in the average
Blackjack game. If the casino has an edge over the basic strategy
player of .40% (6 decks, double on any first two cards, double
after splitting pairs, dealer stands on A-6), it takes a true
count of just about 1 in order to get "even" with the house.
Being even means that the player who utilizes proper basic strategy
will win as much as s/he loses -- in the long run -- at a true
count of one. A true count of 2 gives the counter an edge of
.5% over the house; a true count of 3 gives the player an edge
of 1% and so forth.
It is the edge
that a player has on the upcoming hand which determines their
bet. Count- ers bet only a small portion of their capital on
any given hand, because while they will win in the long run,
they could lose any one hand. By betting an amount which is
in proportion to their advantage (called the "Kelly Criterion"),
they are maximizing their potential while minimizing the risk.
A lot of people misinterpret the Kelly Criterion by assuming
that the amount bet is in direct proportion to the advantage.
They think that if you have a 1% edge, you should bet 1% of
your "bankroll" and that is incorrect. What they are forgetting
is the doubling and pair splitting which goes on in the course
of a game and that increases the risk or "variance" of a hand.
For a game with rules like those listed above, the optimum bet
is 76% of the player's advantage. Here's a table of optimum
bets which will work well for most multi-deck games:
| True Count |
Advantage |
% Optimum
Bet |
| -1 or lower |
-1.00% or
more |
0% |
| 0 |
-0.50% |
0% |
| 1 |
0% |
0% |
| 2 |
0.5%x76% |
.38% |
| 3 |
1.0%x76% |
.76% |
| 4 |
1.5%x76% |
1.14% |
| 5 |
2.0%x76% |
1.52% |
| 6 |
2.5%x76% |
1.90% |
| 7 |
3.0%x76% |
2.28% |
By using this
table, you can determine the optimal bet for any bankroll; just
multiply the figure in the last column by the amount of the
bankroll. Thus, for a bankroll of $3000, the optimal bet for
a true count of 2 is .0038 X $3000 = $11.40.
Some Practical
Considerations
First and foremost,
it isn't practical to bet in units of less than $1, so a betting
schedule must be rounded off. Secondly, it is more appropriate
to bet in units of $5 so that you'll look like the average gambler,
plus it cuts down on the calculations you need to make. Further,
it is impossible to refigure your optimal bet while seated at
the table, even though it should be recalculated as the bankroll
varies up and down. Finally, it just isn't possible to play
only at shoes where the true count is 2 or higher; you will
sometimes have to make bets when the house has an edge. All
of this rounding and negative-deck play cuts into your win rate,
but by knowing the conditions which can cost you money, steps
can be taken to minimize their impact on your earnings.
The Betting
Spread
A single-deck
game with decent rules in which thirty-six cards or more are
used before a shuffle can be beaten by a 1 to 4 spread. A two-deck
game in which seventy cards or more are used before the shuffle
can usually be beaten by a 1 to 6 spread. A game with four decks
or more will require a spread of 1 to 12 in order to get an
edge. We'll discuss the evaluation of games in a later lesson,
but I wanted to lay the foundation for your money management
by giving you an idea of what it takes to play winning Blackjack.
The spread is expressed in betting units, so if you play with
$5 chips, you'd be spreading from $5 to $60 in a six-deck game.
Since a counter should have a bankroll consisting of a minimum
of 50 top bets, a spread like this will require a bankroll of
$3000.
With a $3000 bankroll,
a betting schedule could look like this:
| True Count
|
Player's
Bet |
Optimum
Bet |
| 0 or lower |
$5 |
$0 |
| 1 |
$5 |
$0 |
| 2 |
$10 |
$11.20 |
| 3 |
$20 |
$22.80 |
| 4 |
$40 |
$34.20 |
| 5 |
$50 |
$45.60 |
| 6 |
$60 |
$57.00 |
A betting schedule
like this allows you to "parlay" your bets as the count rises,
thus making you look more like a "gambler".
YOU
WILL SAVE A LOT OF MONEY AND FIND MORE PROFITABLE SITUATIONS
IF YOU LEAVE A TABLE WHEN THE COUNT HAS GONE DOWN TO A TRUE
OF - 1. BUT LEAVE ONLY AFTER LOSING A HAND; NO GAMBLER WOULD
LEAVE A TABLE AFTER A WIN.
So, have I got
your brain spinning? If so, just hang in there as I'll be wrapping
all this up in a nice, easy-to-understand package in the coming
weeks. As always, get your homework, then you're outta here.
Good Online Casinos
Homework
None. How's that
for a break?
