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Blackjack Thorp's Card Counting Theory

Dear Mark: Who was it that came up with the 10-card (10, J, Q, K) being the most important card to follow when counting cards in blackjack? Jake M.

It was Dr. Edward Thorp who, in 1962, developed the first method of card counting using an IBM 704 computer, and then followed up on his finding by writing the classic, Beat the Dealer.

Thorp’s theory was based on counting cards with a value of 10. He figured that the counter could determine the percentage of 10's against the other cards in the deck, and use that information to determine whether the deck was favorable to the house or to the player. In a deck of 52 cards, Jake, there are 36 non -10-value cards and 16 10-value cards, After each shuffle, the deck stands at 2.25 to one which slightly favors the house. When the percentage drops below that 2.25 threshold, it favors the player, who would then increase his or her bet. Conversely, when the deck favors the house, the player would wager less.

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