save you some money
in losing situations. Let me give you an example
of what we mean and why people sometimes make the
mistake of deviating from basic strategy because
“it doesn’t seem to make any sense.”
Take the hand of Ace-7, a soft 18, against a dealer’s
upcard of 6. If you stand with the hand, you will
win more decisions than if you double the hand.
An 18 is a strong hand against a dealer’s 6,
the reasoning goes. If you double down, you can
only improve your hand by receiving an ace, 2, or
3; if you get a 10 it does not improve it and merely
takes the dealer’s possible bust card, but
receiving a 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 worsens the hand. So
you have a soft 18 and you double down and you get
a 4; you now find yourself in the unenviable position
of sitting there with a 12 and twice as much money
out! Does this make sense?
Maybe it does; maybe
it doesn’t.
But there’s no
maybe when it comes to basic strategy as always
doubling down is what the computer-derived basic
strategy calls for in the above situation of soft
18 against a dealer’s 6. In point of fact,
if you double your soft 18 you will make the hand
worse almost 50 percent of the time, and you will
lose more of your decisions in this situation because
of that. Yet, by doubling the amount of money in
action on soft 18 vs. a dealer’s 6 upcard,
you will win 10 percent more money in the long run
than had you stood on your 18. You’ll win fewer
hands, but you’ll win more money. Which is
more important to you?
Blackjack
Basic Strategy Part 2
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