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Blackjack Basic Strategy Part 2

It takes many novice blackjack players a long while to understand, or at least to appreciate, and acquiesce to the fact that basic strategy is about winning money; and that phrases like “doesn’t make any sense to me,” “seems dumb to me,” “every time I do that I lose,” are actually irrelevant to the proper play of the hands over time.

Here’s another example of where “common sense” and “computer analysis” clash head on. You have a 16 and the dealer has a 7 upcard. If you stand on your 16 and the dealer has a 10 or ace in the hole, you lose. But the dealer will have a 10 or ace in the hole only about 40 percent of the time. That means about 60 percent of the time, the dealer is going to have a card that forces him or her to take a hit. So why not stay on your 16, a definite loser for you the

overwhelming majority of the time when you hit it, and let the dealer do his or her thing? The reason is as easy as saving $7 for every $100 you bet in this situation! Your 16 against anything is a loser, no doubt; but your 16 against a dealer’s upcard of 7 will lose you $48 for every $100 bet in this situation if you stand, while it will only lose you $41 for every $100 bet in this situation if you hit. That’s a difference of $7. Yes, you are going to lose money on 16 vs. a dealer’s upcard of 7 no matter how you play the hand, but you will lose $7 less on the 7 if you hit. So, memorize this right now, or think of it as a drink: hit and you have a 7 & 7.

Many players erroneously think that blackjack is close to a 50-50 game with the house. Nothing could be further from the truth. In blackjack, the player loses the majority of the hands that aren’t pushes! The statistics show that a player ties approximately 8 percent of the time, wins approximately 44 percent of the time, and loses approximately 48 percent of the time. Yet, in terms of money bet, or monetary expectation and house edge, a blackjack player playing perfect basic strategy faces around a one-half percent house edge -- translated that means one losing bet per 200 decisions! The reason for such a seeming anomaly (you lose the majority of your hands but only half of one bet deficit in 200 decisions) has to do with the options that players can utilize. These options, doubling down, pair splitting, hitting and standing when used according to basic strategy get more money on the table in situations that help the player’s overall monetary expectation.

Sadly the reverse is also true. When used improperly, all the player options can give the house juicy edges against the player. That is why even a perfunctory look at casino blackjack statistics shows that it is the cash cow of the casino table games and it is the players who are being ground into chop meat because of their poor play.

Blackjack Basic Strategy

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More Columns By Franki Scoblete

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