Most people who are
well read in casino gambling know that quite a few
of the common beliefs gamblers have are mistaken.
For example, slot machines do not have predetermined
win and loss cycles. Everything that happens inside
a slot machine’s Random Number Generator is,
well, random, or as close to random as humans can
make it. Those streaks you see are what mathematicians
call “fluctuations in probability” or,
as we normal people say, good or bad luck. With
every spin of the reels the chance of this or that
result happening is exactly the same as it was on
the last spin of the reels.
But
slot players aren’t the only ones who labor under
misconceptions. Table game players, too, have a host
of myths, misperceptions, and money-losing ideas when
it comes to their games of choice. Recently, I received
an email from someone; we’ll call him Jim. Jim
was upset that he had played a blackjack game in Las
Vegas that I had recommended. Here’s what he wrote:
“Mr. Scoblete, you had better rethink your analysis
of
the Las
Vegas blackjack games. I played that 6-deck game
that you said was the best in the city and I lost
my entire buy in. How could that game be the best
when I lost so much so fast?” Jim
was under the impression that just because a game
is rated good or great or the “best in the
city,” it must equal a win for the player.
Nothing could be further from the truth. A blackjack
game is judged good or bad based on the rules of
the particular casino and based on the penetration
the casino gives. Penetration is how deeply or how
shallowly the dealer goes into the deck or shoe
before he shuffles. Deep penetration is usually
considered good, shallow penetration is usually
considered bad. But wait! The game I had recommended
had extremely deep penetration and I had this to
say to Jim when I wrote Jim back: “The game
that I recommended based on its penetration would
be good for a card counter to play but it is not
good for a basic strategy player to play. Games
that are good for card counters are also good for
casinos because casinos deal many more hands out
and these hands are overwhelmingly dealt out to
players who do not have an edge over the casino.
That translates into big wins for the casinos and
losses for the players. You want to look for games
with really poor penetration but good rules. Most
casino executives are not aware that if they offered
really deep penetration, they would make more money.
Sure, card counters would get their 1 percent edge
but the other players, playing with one-half to
two percent edges against them would more than make
up for what any card counter could win. Jim, whenever
you see ratings for blackjack games, you have to
ascertain if the writer is writing for card counters
or basic strategy players. The article you read
was for card counters. What’s good for them
is bad for you.”
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Columns By Franki Scoblete
