Tell me honestly, whenever
you say something like: “Well, I assumed blah,
blah, blah,” doesn’t it annoy the heck
out of you when some idiot then counters with: “Always
remember, when you assume you make an ass of you
and me! Ha! Ha! Ha!”
None
of us want to be told our assumptions are false. Or
illogical. Or dangerous. Or dumb.
Could you imagine what would happen if we discovered
our individual assumptions about God, heaven and hell
were completely wrong?
“Hey, are you God? Am I in heaven because I was
a good __________?” (Fill in the blank with your
particular religion.)
“Me? God? Ha!
Ha! Ha! No, no. I am Gwando, the Mean, the ruler
of the universe. The one true religion was Gabagaba.
There were four people who believed in it. They
are here in heaven with me. All the rest of you,
all nine billion humans who lived and died, were
wrong and are now in hell, freezing. Their teeth
chattering from the vicious cold down there. You
shouldn’t have assumed you had the truth about
heaven, hell or anything puny mortal, ha! ha! ha!
because when you assume you make an ass of.... [he
presses a button].”
“Aaaarrrggghhhhh!!!!”
Now, that would be disquieting, wouldn’t it?
To discover that our most cherished beliefs “paved
the primrose way to the everlasting refrigerator”
(to misquote Shakespeare) instead of to “hog
heaven” (to quote craps player, Barry Dickerson).
And it will be almost as disquieting for many casino
players to discover that some of their cherished
gambling/casino assumptions, many handed down by
tradition and authority, are indeed false, illogical,
dangerous and dumb.
Here are 20 things players assume that can make
an...I assume you can finish that line, can’t
you?
Assumption #1: In blackjack, the dealer probably
has a 10-value card in the hole.
Don’t bet your life on that. True, the dealer
is more likely to have a 10-valued card than any
other single value, but he is much more likely to
have a non-10 in the hole. Why is that? Because
in a single deck of cards, there are only 16 cards
valued as 10 (the King, Queen, Jack and 10) and
36 cards not valued as 10. Of course, you have a
better chance of a 10-valued card coming out than
you do a 2, or 3 or 4 or Ace because there are four
10-values to every one of any other value. Now,
here’s the really important thing to remember.
We don’t play basic strategy based on what
we guess the hole card of the dealer to be. We play
it based on the face-up card. The computer simulations
that developed basic strategy did so taking into
consideration every single possible hole card the
dealer could have and in what proportions.
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Columns By Franki Scoblete
