Craps 5 Count Computer Simulations

In his first experiment using the Captain’s 5-Count method of play (please see my book Forever Craps: The Five-Step Advantage-Play Method! for a complete description of how to play the 5-Count) Dr. Don Catlin, Professor Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, did a computer simulation of 200 million random shooters placing 6 and 8 for $6 each. One player, called the “Bet-All” player, obviously bet on every shooter who rolled the dice. The 5-Counter only placed the 6 and 8 after the shooter made it through the 5-Count. To make the simulation easier to digest, Dr. Catlin had the bets working at all times once they were placed, even on subsequent come-out rolls. The results:

loss per shooter was 0.20396344

[You can make these figures palatable by dropping the six digits from the right and rounding up or down. So, the Bet-All player wagered $6,252 and lost $95; while the 5-Counter bet $2,693 and lost $41.]

We would not expect the 5-Count to show a positive expectation against strictly random rollers; after all, no betting system can change a negative into a positive. Because the 5-Count eliminated approximately 57 percent of the random shooters, this accounted for the fact that the 5-Counter lost approximately $41 for every $95 lost by the Bet-All player in a random game. In fact, the loss for both players is approximately 1.5 percent of the total amount wagered, which is about what we would expect considering the 6 and 8 come in with a 1.5 percent edge for the house.

The Captain claimed that utilizing the 5-Count would result in a possible “monetary edge” even against random rollers when comps were factored into the equation. Did this happen? Yes, in most cases the 5-Counter had the monetary edge over the casino.

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