Craps 5 Count Computer Simulations Part 2

Casinos will usually give back approximately 30 percent to 50 percent of a player’s theoretical loss in the form of comps (free rooms, shows, meals, cashback, match-play, etc.). Most casinos judge craps players as playing against an approximately 2-3 percent house edge; in such cases, the 5-Counter received enough in comps to push his expectation into the positive monetary zone.

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 3 percent of all money wagered; comps are 30 percent of theoretical loss. I used the “palatable” figures so that it would be clearer.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception	$187.50	$56.10	$38.90
$38.90		$95.00	$56.10	$38.90
The 5 Counter	$187.50	$41.00	$56.10	+$15.10

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 3 percent of all money wagered; comps are 40 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$187.50	$95.00	$75.00	-$20.00
The 5 Counter	$187.50	$41.00	$75.00	+$34.00

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 3 percent of all money wagered; comps are 50 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$187.50	$95.00	$93.78	-$1.22
The 5 Counter	$187.50	$41.00	$93.78	+$53.78

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 2 percent of all money wagered; comps are 30 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$125.04	$95.00	$37.51	-$57.49
The 5 Counter	$125.04	$41.00	$37.51	-$3.49

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 2 percent of all money wagered; comps are 40 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$125.04	$95.00	$50.00	-$45.00
The 5 Counter	$125.04	$41.00	$50.00	+$9.00

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 2 percent of all money wagered; comps are 50 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$125.04	$95.00	$62.52	-$32.48
The 5 Counter	$125.04	$41.00	$62.52	+$21.52

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 1.5 percent of all money wagered; comps are 30 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$125.04	$95.00	$28.50	-$66.50
The 5 Counter	$125.04	$41.00	$28.50	+$12.50*

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 1.5 percent of all money wagered; comps are 40 percent of theoretical loss.

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$95.00	$95.00	$38.00	-$57.00
The 5 Counter	$95.00	$41.00	$38.00	-$3.00*

Player’s Theoretical Loss: 1.5 percent of all money wagered; comps are 50 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $95.00 $95.00 $47.50 - $47.50
The 5-Counter: $95.00 $41.00 $47.50 +$ 6.50

		Theoretical Loss	Actual Loss	Comp Value	Monetary Exception
Bet-All Player	$95.00	$95.00	$47.50	-$47.50
The 5 Counter	$95.00	$41.00	$47.50	+$6.50

As we can see, the 5-Counter only faces a monetary disadvantage in casinos that rate the game as having a 1.5 percent to 2 percent edge with a 30 percent comp giveback and in games that are rated 1.5 percent with a 40 percent giveback. The most the 5-Counter is down is $12.50 in the latter game.

NEXT ISSUE: GETTING THE REAL EDGE WITH THE 5-COUNT!

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