In a
random game of craps, where the 7 is always a 1 in
6 probability, the house edge is a fixed mark, in
the case of placing the “inside numbers”
of 5, 6, 8, and 9, that mark is about 2.6 percent.
What that means is that the player making the “inside
numbers” bet will lose 2.6 percent of all the
money he wagers – in the long run. If on one
bet he has $110 at risk and on other bets he only
has $22 at risk, the house edge is working on some
average amount between the two extremes.
Of course, when regression
betting is working to perfection (meaning it’s
violating the probability gods) and an inside number
is hit early and often on shooter after shooter;
it is a guaranteed one-roll win per shooter. But
when the 7 shows before an inside number, the loss
is brutal. Once you’ve lost the $110, if you
continue to regress on future shooters as you planned
will take approximately 10 shooters in a row to
get past that first hit or one shooter to have a
monster roll as you collect on your $22 across in
$7 increments. Yeow!
How often will you
be wiped off the board before an inside number can
be hit? You’ll win 18 times on your numbers,
lose six times on that abominable 7. That means
you’ll win 3 times for a win of $35 + $35 +$35
= $105; then you’ll lose once for a loss of
$110. You’re $5 in the hole. You’ll have
the same effects once you regress down to $22 across.
You’ll win $7 + $7 +$7 = $21 but you’ll
lose the fourth bet for $22. You’ll be down
$1.
The math of craps is
annoying because it won’t go away; it’s
implacable, like a dreaded in-law. While regression
betting does reduce the house’s take on your
money, it does so because you are betting less,
not because you have come up with a way to beat
the game or reduce the house edge.
Still, 75 percent of the time using the above regression
will result in being ahead of the game on a particular
shooter. If you come to a casino and jump out ahead
on the first few shooters, you’re now in the
catbird’s seat. You might even consider changing
your attack to stop going up on that $110 inside
and instead continue with $22 inside on subsequent
shooters.
Not all regressions
are as drastic as the $110 and down that I’ve
just explained. You could, for example, put $44
inside and when it hits once, go to a six dollar
6 and 8. A single hit on $44 inside would see you
win $14. Now with just $12 at risk on the 6 and
8, you are ahead $2. Again such a betting strategy
cannot turn a negative into a positive; the house
has its damnable edge on each and every bet you
make in a random game betting those inside numbers.
Is regression betting
worth considering? Yes, it is, if you can stomach
putting a lot down and losing it to a “point-seven
out” which will happen often enough to make
even those with the strongest stomachs queasy.
Do I enjoy regression
betting? No, I do not. As a general rule, once I’ve
gone with a shooter (after assiduously applying
the Captain’s 5-Count), I’m usually on
that shooter come hell or high water. (Is high water
considered good in this expression?) I prefer to
take the risk to go for the bigger win by keeping
my initial bets at their initial levels. But in
math terms, against random rollers, I am giving
the house a better whack at me than had I regressed.
For controlled shooters,
regression betting is probably a more powerful strategy
than it is on random shooters. Why? Because controlled
shooters will have a tendency to hit certain numbers
more than their probabilities indicate (most merely
attempt to avoid the 7) – and they will tend
to have somewhat longer than average rolls. The
longer a controlled shooter rolls, the better the
chance that fatigue or distraction will alter his
throw, either making the game random once again
or, worse, precipitating the appearance of the 7.
There is an intriguing speculation amongst the brain
trust of Golden Touch that controlled shooters,
when they are the least off, tend to hit more 7s
than normal because they are still changing the
nature of the game but, being off slightly, they
are changing it for the worse! A regression bettor
can capitalize on that and lock up wins before the
7 shows.
Regression betting
has its advocates and its opponents. Some people
swear by it; some swear at it. In the final analysis,
against random shooters, you’re betting less;
against controlled shooters, you might be getting
in for some significant hits before coming down.
If you like this as an idea, try it out on your
next casino trip and see if you like it as much
in reality.
Visit Websites Of The Scoblete Network
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