possible way to win
a Doey-Don’t bet. Obviously, someone would
have to be insane to make such a wager and not take
or lay odds on one end or the other. The general
reason given by players for utilizing the Doey-Don’t
style of betting is to take advantage of the Odds
portion of the game. So, is this the best way to
play the Odds game, all other things being equal?
No, it isn’t. At a 5X odds game, for example,
taking full odds on the Pass Line bet sees the house
edge at a low 0.326 percent. The house edge employing
the Doey-Don’t style of betting is 0.528 percent.
That’s the difference between losing 33 cents
or losing 53 cents per $100 wagered.
In purely mathematical
terms, then, the Doey-Don’t is not a hedge
that gives the player the opportunity to lose less
than he would have had he not hedged.
Okay, so have I been blown away by my own analysis
of the Doey-Don’t’s lack of efficacy in
hedging (“hoisted with one’s own petard”
means being blown up with your own ammunition --
think of those poor souls who blow themselves up
with their own firecrackers every Fourth of July).
Not quite.
Mathematically there
is little doubt that the Pass Line bet straight
up is better than any hedge bet thus far discussed.
However, the Doey-Don’t coupled with the 5-Count
is not a mathematical betting system so much as
a system for finding shooters who are reducing the
appearance of the 7 (these are called rhythmic rollers).
If the occurrence of the 7 is reduced, the motivation
for betting Pass (or Come) is reduced as well, since
three-fourths of the Pass Line’s power comes
from the six appearances of that come-out 7. With
a reduction in the appearance of the 7, and a subsequent
increase in the appearance of point numbers, the
Doey-Don’t can become the preferred way to
bet. Is this a controversial claim? Certainly. Do
I believe it? Yes.
But in strictly mathematical
terms, the Doey-Don’t is no better than any
other hedge I’ve discussed -- it can’t
answer in the affirmative the question: “Will
I lose less using this method?”
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