the mathematically
correct thing by laying odds on their bets once
they are up on the numbers. Of
course, a single loss on the number requires two
wins to make up for it, whereas on the Rightside
a player taking the odds needs only to win one bet
to make up for one loss and show a profit. That’s
because he is not the favorite to win an equal number
of bets in the long run. Thus his taking of the
odds means he wins more than even-money when he
does win. The Darksider loses the whole bet but
only wins a fraction of his odds when he does win.
So a hot shooter devastates a Darksider while it
elevates a Rightsider. But there is a relatively
simple way to avoid all hot shooters. It’s
not a fancy betting system or a hedging system.
It’s as easy as one, two…no three needed.
Don’t bet on the
Don’t Pass!
Do bet on the Don’t Come!
These three simple
rules will avoid all hot rolls by an individual
shooter and, just as important, if there are any
controlled shooters at the table, these rules will
help you avoid them as well – at least when
they are deliberately setting and shooting against
your interests. Some Darksiders have fallen for
the logical fallacy that a shooter can’t make
enough “points” to hurt you if you keep
escalating your bets in a Martingale (i.e., a double
up as you lose progression) in order to recoup in
one win what you lost in all those losses. This
is not so. A shooter need only make seven points
to put you at the table maximums in most casinos
if you are starting with $10 Don’t Pass bets
and backing them with full odds. Even though this
will not happen that often, it will happen on occasion
and those occasions will be enough to wipe out all
the little wins you accumulated over time with your
Martingale. The way you avoid betting on hot shooters
is to figure that anyone who has burned you once
is just as likely (or in the case of a controlled
shooter, more than likely) to burn you twice. The
Don’t Pass line, where the 7 and 11 come up
with annoying regularity, is just asking for the
same shooter to burn you once, twice, thrice and
even more. Why? Because a controlled shooter will
often be looking to hit that 7 and will therefore
be setting for the 7. I know my friends in Golden
Touch Craps are always setting for the 7 on the
come-out. Why would you want to bet into such a
big disadvantage? Unless you are insane or a masochist,
you wouldn’t. Apropos of that, a few weeks
ago at Sam’s Town in Tunica a Don’t Pass
bettor making $300, $600, $1,200, $2,400 on my come-out
roll lost to my four straight sevens, which I was
setting for and hitting. Wouldn’t he have been
better off just losing that initial $300 and waiting
for the next shooter? Yes, it would have. But he
was in a personal contest with me. I could see it
on his face. He was daring me to hit another seven…and
I did and I did and I did and I did once more and
he allowed himself to be wiped out.
The Don’t Come, while mathematically the exact
same bet as the Don’t Pass, has certain features
that make it a more attractive bet for the Darksider
looking to minimize his exposure to hot shooters
or dice controllers. First of all, while the bet
loses on a 7 or 11 in its initial placement, the
7, which will occur three-fourths of the time on
a loser, knocks off the shooter; he sevens out.
This shooter will therefore only be able to hurt
you once on a 7, unlike the Don’t Pass shooter
who can roll many 7s in a row to frustrate and aggravate
you. My advice, if the 11 shows, is to take it as
a warning and not bet against this particular shooter
again.
Now, if the shooter
is a controlled shooter, when your Don’t Come
bet is out there, it is highly likely that the dice
controller is looking to hit any number but the
7. If he has skill, it is much more likely that
he will be reducing the appearance of the 7 and
increasing the appearance of the other numbers.
Thus, you face reduced chances of being burned on
the initial placement. Once up on a number, you
still have to worry that a dice controller will
bang you out but at least you made it to the point
in the game where you have the math with you. If
a shooter should hit the number you’re on,
that’s it for him. He beat you; accept it.
Wait for another shooter.
By playing this way,
any one shooter can only hurt you once, whether
he rolls for a minute or until the end of time.
To take a beating on the initial placement of the
Don’t Pass can happen over and over. To take
a beating on the initial placement of the Don’t
Come rarely happens because three-fourths of the
time it is a seven out.
If you have been playing
craps for any sustained length of time, you know
that it is rare that any shooter has an epic roll;
rarer still that two or three will have them back
to back to back. Playing the Don’t in such
a conservative fashion will not win you buckets
of chips but it will prevent you from losing barrels
full of them to a shooter who is hot either because
Lady Luck is smiling on him or because he has the
skill to control the dice to some degree.
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