$60 when the 2 or 3
rolls. That’s a net loss of $100, on average,
for every 36 come-out rolls. Not very uplifting.
So our clever craps connoisseur hedges his $20 Don’t
Pass bet by wagering $5 on the Any Seven bet, which
pays off at four to one. If the shooter rolls a
2 or 3, our Don’t Pass bettor wins $20 but
loses his $5 Any Seven for a gain of $15. How often
will he win that $15? Three times for a net gain
of $45.
Now, the formerly dreaded
7 rolls and what happens? A washout on the six times
that would have previously been losers as the Any
Seven wins $20 and the Don’t Pass loses $20
on each and every 7. We are still losing on the
11, a loss of $40 but overall, at this stage, we
are ahead $5. But then the hedge falls apart as
we still have to get past those 24 Point numbers
and the “bar 12,” the totality of which
costs us $125 for the Any Seven bet, for a net loss
on the Don’t Pass come-out hedging of $120
-- instead of the $100 had we not hedged at all!
That’s a 20 percent increase in our losses!
Depressing.
So here’s a simple saying to memorize: Don’t
“Don’t” hedge!
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