best overall strategy,
can’t guarantee that you’ll win at craps
in the long run; such advice can only guarantee
that you’ll lose the least amount in the long
run based on your total amount wagered.
So, for want of a better
way to say it, the above are “true-truths.”
Now, what do the following statements have in common?
“If something that should happen a certain
percentage of the time and it hasn’t happened
that percentage of the time, it will happen in the
future.”
“Win 80 percent of your decisions at craps
- guaranteed!”
“Win 99 percent of your betting sequences at
craps - guaranteed!”
“Protect your Pass Line bet from the losing
on the Come Out - guaranteed!”
The above statements are all true as well. Yet,
they are as false as “dicers’ oaths,”
as Shakespeare put it. Thus, the above are “false-truths.”
True Truths
True truths are mundane, especially in craps. Pass/Come
betting with odds is boring for many craps players
who just love the action and can’t be bothered
with making this two-step process of going up on
the Pass and/or Come, waiting for the dice to roll
a point number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10), then placing
the full odds (or as much as they can afford) on
the number and pray that the number hits before
the dreaded 7. Even the eight times in 36 when they
win on a 7 and 11 during Come-Out rolls just isn’t
all that exciting to such players.
So what have craps players done? They’ve invented
or bought systems to beat the game. With one exception
(which I will discuss in the final paragraphs of
this piece -- stop! don’t rush to the end),
all such systems at craps have failed utterly to
establish themselves as winners or, as in the case
of the Pass/Come with full odds, as “less losers.”
First, let’s quickly establish why Pass/Come
and Don’t Pass/Don’t Come with full odds
are the absolute best betting approaches to the
game of craps. It’s all in the math.
When you bet a Pass or Come bet of “X”
and then take “2X” in odds, the casino’s
overall edge on you is a mere 0.61 percent (fractionally
less on the “don’t”). That’s
right, your expectation is to lose a measly 61 cents
for every $100 you bet in this fashion. In a 5X
odds game, the casino edge is 0.33 percent, in 10X
odds games it is 0.18 percent, and in 20X odds games,
it is 0.10 percent -- one dime for $100 wagered.
That is about as close a mathematical contest as
most players are likely to see in a casino.
Good
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