Craps Numbers Hedge Betting

Don’t Pass bettors can also get tangled up in the hedges in numerous ways. Here’s one that is advocated by several gaming writers. Place a Don’t-Pass bet of $20 and when the point is 6 or 8, you Place bet the same number for $18. The thinking here is that if the 7 appears, you will win $20 on the Don’t Pass and lose $18 on the Place bet, giving you a $2 guaranteed profit. However, if the either the 6 or 8 hits, you will win $21 and lose $20, giving you a guaranteed $1 profit. Overall, you’ll win $17 betting this way.

A total of $17. That’s $3 less than had you played it straight! It is also a reduction of 15 percent in winnings. Not good. This same hedge is also advocated for the other numbers as well, with the same dire consequences.

Again you bet $20 on the Don’t Pass and, if the 5 or 9 is the Point, you also Place bet that number for $15. If the 7 hits, you win $20 on the Don’t Pass bet, but lose $15 on the Place bet -- for a guaranteed win of $5. When the Point rolls you win $21 on the Place bet, but lose $20 on the Don’t Pass bet for a guaranteed win of $1.

So what does this all add up to? Had you simply stuck with your Don’t Pass bet on the 5 or 9, you would have won $120 when the 7 rolled and lost $80 when the 5 or 9 rolled as the 7 is a six-to-four, or three-to-two, favorite over the 5 or 9. That’s a net win of $40. By hedging, you won $30 when the 7 rolled and $4 when the 5 or 9 rolled for a net win of $34. That’s $6 less! Your winnings have again been reduced by 15 percent because of hedging. Bad news.
The same scenario holds for the hedging of the 4 or 10. Again, you bet $20 on the Don’t Pass and if the point is 4 or 10, you Place bet that number for $15. If a 7 hits, you will win $20 on the Don’t but lose $15 on the Place bet, for a profit of $5. However, if the point is rolled you win $27 on your Place bet, lose $20 on your Don’t Pass bet, and wind up ahead $7 overall.

This sounds good until you take a look at what you actually would have won had you just stuck with your Don’t Pass bet of 4 or 10. You would have won $60 because the 7 is a six-to-three, or two-to-one, favorite over the 4 or 10. You would win six times ($120), lose three (-$60) and been up $60. How much did you win with the guaranteed hedge? You won $30 when the 7 rolled and $21 when the 4 or 10 rolled, for a win of $51. That’s $9 less! Again a reduction of 15 percent in your overall win! Just awful.

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