Dear
Mark,
When the dealer is showing a bust card (2, 3, 4, 5,
6), how often does she really bust? Dan A.
Never, as in "When I¹m playing, they never
bust." overstates it, Dan, though
we¹ve all had that feeling. But they do bust,
as often as 43% of the time
when a six is showing.
Success
at blackjack, Dan, is based on how you play your hand
against the dealer¹s upcard. The upcard provides
you with enough information to reliably predict the
most likely outcome of play against any dealer¹s
hand, based on the makeup of a standard deck of playing
cards.A multitude of computer studies have been done
on the game of blackjack,analyzing the correct strategy
on playing your hand, against any given dealer¹s
upcard.
Because the dealer plays
by a set of strict house rules on when to stand or
when to take a card, she must draw a card until she
has a total of 17 or
more.
Based on computers crunching their diet of 1s and
0s, the dealer will bust
more often when her upcard is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, and
she will successfully
complete more hands when her up card is a 7, 8, 9,
or a 10-value card (10,
J, Q, K) or an ace.
The following table,
Dan, shows the dealer¹s likelihood of busting
with any particular upcard. Percent of the time she¹ll
bust:
2
35%
3
38%
4
40%
5
42%
6
43%
7
26%
8
24%
9
23%
10
value card
21%
Ace
11%
Note, Dan, that the dealer
will bust most often when she has a 5 or a 6 as
her upcard, and she will bust the least frequently,
approximately 11% of the
time, when her upcard is an ace.
Generally speaking, basic strategy dictates it is
to your advantage to stand
down when the dealer¹s upcard is a 2 through
6, then hope, wish and pray, as
we all do, that your femme fatale of fate draws a
10-value card that makes
her bust. (Yes, I know there¹s a pun in there
somewhere, but I¹m avoiding
it.) It also means that when the dealer¹s upcard
is 7 through ace, she will
complete more of her hands. In that situation, you
will need to draw cards
up to a total of 17 or more.
Should
You Really Split Your 8s In Blackjack
If the dealer in a strong position the good
common sense your momma raised you with tells
you that splitting this hand just creates
two losers.
Blackjack
Multi Deck House Edge Percentages You can offset this casino advantage
by finding player-friendly rules where surrender is
allowed, as is doubling down after splitting pairs,
and re-splitting aces.