Odds Of Dealer Busting Playing Blackjack 21

Dear Mark,
When the dealer is showing a bust card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6), how often does she really bust? Dan A.

Never, as in "When I¹m playing, they never bust." overstates it, Dan, though
we¹ve all had that feeling. But they do bust, as often as 43% of the time
when a six is showing.

Because the dealer plays by a set of strict house rules on when to stand or
when to take a card, she must draw a card until she has a total of 17 or
more.
Based on computers crunching their diet of 1s and 0s, the dealer will bust
more often when her upcard is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, and she will successfully
complete more hands when her up card is a 7, 8, 9, or a 10-value card (10,
J, Q, K) or an ace.

The following table, Dan, shows the dealer¹s likelihood of busting with any particular upcard. Percent of the time she¹ll bust:

Note, Dan, that the dealer will bust most often when she has a 5 or a 6 as
her upcard, and she will bust the least frequently, approximately 11% of the
time, when her upcard is an ace.
Generally speaking, basic strategy dictates it is to your advantage to stand
down when the dealer¹s upcard is a 2 through 6, then hope, wish and pray, as
we all do, that your femme fatale of fate draws a 10-value card that makes
her bust. (Yes, I know there¹s a pun in there somewhere, but I¹m avoiding
it.) It also means that when the dealer¹s upcard is 7 through ace, she will
complete more of her hands. In that situation, you will need to draw cards
up to a total of 17 or more.