your money on? The
5-Count is the way to select the shooters to risk
money on. I think the reason the Captain, myself,
and the many people who have written to me to tell
me of their success with the 5-Count have had that
success partially due to the fact that some of the
shooters we risk our money on are actually what
the Captain calls “rhythmic rollers.”
They are changing the math of the game by controlling
the throw to a small extent. The 5-Count eliminates
the bad shooters -- the ones you lose your money
on -- and positions you to, hopefully, be there
for the good shooters a small percentage of which
are these rhythmic rollers.
22. So you think
the 5-Count guarantees that you will win at craps
in the long run?
No. Some people have written to me to tell me that
while using the 5-Count has decreased their losses
markedly (after all you are reducing your exposure
to the house edge by using it), they are still behind
after extended play. Of course, I have had blackjack
card counters tell me the same thing -- they are
still down after extended play even with a mathematical
edge. But if you want to know what I believe, here
it is: I would never ever play craps any other way
than with the Captain’s 5-Count, and making
the smallest house-edge bets. I want the best chance
to take home some money at craps tonight and a way
to reduce my potential losses over time and keep
my level of comps the same. The Captain’s methods
give me that. I want to save money on the random
rollers and, hopefully, capitalize on my own rolls.
23. How can a player
have a mathematical edge and still lose?
Easy. Let’s flip a coin. I am going to give
you an approximately one percent edge over the casino
-- the same kind of edge that most blackjack card
counters might have. You get to call the flip. Every
time you win, you will be paid one dollar and two
cents. Every time you lose, you will give up one
dollar. The math shows us plainly that you will
theoretically win in the long run because flipping
a coin is a 50-50 proposition and you’re getting
paid more for a win than you are losing for a loss.
So in 200 flips, you theoretically win 100 and lose
100 and come out ahead by 200 pennies or two dollars.
Now, start flipping a real coin and start betting
and keep track of it on paper. Do it right now and
then come back and read the rest of this. Go ahead.
Do it. Surprised aren’t you? Some of you went
on a winning streak that made you a nice chunk of
change but some of you started to lose and by the
time you got tired of flipping that coin and keeping
track of your wins and losses, you were down a pretty
penny.
24. But if I played long enough I would have to
win, right?
Yes, if you didn’t go broke first. We’re
going to flip a coin again with the same stipulations
as above. But this time, you have only four dollars
to play with and your opponent has, oh, $10,000.
Don’t bother going off and doing the experiment
-- you are going to get wiped out even with your
one percent edge. Why? Because your bankroll can’t
sustain the fluctuations of probability inherent
in a gambling game. That’s a fancy way of saying
you don’t have enough money to weather the
bad streaks that will inevitably come your way.
You have the edge but that edge is only mathematical.
In the real world the guy with the $10,000 against
your four dollars has the real edge.
25. What is the best show you ever saw in Las Vegas?
Dennis Rodman playing craps at the Mirage before
he was kicked out.
Good
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