an extended period
of time, each number came up well within the range
that probability indicated -- that is, each number
came in close to 1 in 38. The short range weirdness
of that particular day had no influence on the long
run math. The casinos bank on that fact and their
bank vaults are overflowing with money won in the
long run from players.
The long run is a very
long time, granted. Usually, it can be stated as
the amount of time, or number of decisions, necessary
for the probabilities to be within a given range
of results. A coin flip will be in the long run
faster than a roulette wheel because a coin flip
has only two possible decisions and a roulette wheel
has 37 or 38, depending on the type of wheel. As
I stated, in the long run the math of a game will
win out over any aberrations that take place tonight.
So what is a gambler
to do when making strategy decisions for the game
of his choice? Some gaming writers suggest that
since most players will never truly get into the
long run, that strategies based on long-run results
are fundamentally flawed, if not irrelevant. Some
will suggest that you go for a guaranteed short-run
win, such as taking insurance when the dealer shows
an ace and you have a blackjack. Since anything
can and does happen in the short run, such writers
reason, applying strategies based on the math of
the games will only work if you intend to hit the
casinos weekly, or daily. Many players buy into
this notion. They prefer to play for here and now
and they tend to forget about tomorrow.
“I play for tonight,”
a gambler once told me. “I have no interest
in learning strategies for craps. I just hope my
luck will hold out and I can make some money. I
have had some great evenings at the craps tables
when everything went my way. I’ve also had
very bad evenings as well. Overall? Overall, I am
a loser but so is everybody who goes to casinos.”
Although it is definitely
not true that “everybody who goes to casinos”
is a loser, it is certainly true that the overwhelming
majority are, especially if they go more than once
or twice in a lifetime. Yes, it is true that tonight
you can have great luck and tomorrow as well and,
maybe, you’ll have a week of incredible good
fortune, but the bigger the house edge on the bets
you make and the greater the number of decisions
you face, the more likely it is that your winning
streak will come to a halt and you start a slippery
slide down that icy mountain called loss.
Gambling
Short Run Best Decisions Part 2
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