The types of streaks
you have in all negative-expectation games will
be longer on the losing end, monetarily speaking,
than on the winning end. The games are structured
that way. Even when games are 50-50, such as a coin
flip, the casino will (if it offered a game called
“coin flip”) take out a tax on the winning
bets.
So
while a streak of three heads and three tails are equally
likely, if the player won, the casino would take out
“vig” or a tax on his winnings. If he bet
$10, he’d win, say, $9.50. However, when he lost,
he’d lose the whole $10. So a winning and losing
streak of three in a row would see the player down $1.50.
Is it wise to forgo what we know about the proper long-run
strategies at games such as blackjack, craps, Let It
Ride, Caribbean Stud, and
others, to take a chance
on “luck” in the short run? Obviously,
no, it is not wise. In fact, it is silly. Is it
wise to forgo what we know about the proper long-run
strategies at games such as blackjack, craps, Let
It Ride, Caribbean Stud, and others, to take a chance
on “luck” in the short run? Obviously,
no, it is not wise. In fact, it is silly. There
are only two ways to play casino games -- the best
way and all the other ways. The best way is to make
the proper decisions each and every time. In games
such as blackjack, that means following basic strategy
to the letter, even if certain hands (such as 8:8
vs. a dealer’s 10; or 12 vs. a dealer’s
2) seem intuitively almost suicidal. In games such
as craps and baccarat, it means making the low house-edge
bets. Likewise with card games where your strategy
choices matter, such as Let It Ride, Caribbean Stud,
Pai Gow Poker, and Three-Card Poker, the long-range
strategy should be your short-range strategy.
Keep this in mind as
well. Your chances of having good “luck”
at a table increase as the house edge and the number
of decisions decrease. Your chances of having bad
“luck” multiply as the edge and the number
of decisions multiply. It’s a simple formula.
This same premise holds
true for those infernal slot machines as well. Playing
the best payback machines, that is “certified”
98 percent return machines, stand-alone, non-progressive
machines and the like, offers you the best chance
to “get lucky” tonight and to stay lucky
in the nights to come (or, at least, to not be as
“unlucky” as those who play a heavy dose
of progressive machines with high house edges).
Video poker is much like real card games. Your choices
matter. A good video poker player plays against
a minimal edge; a bad video poker player gives the
casino much larger edges.
So keep this in mind. The long run is just made
up of a lot of short runs and the math, not “luck,”
will usually win out in the end. So, to get lucky,
stick with the math!
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Columns By Franki Scoblete
