Dear Mark,
I am a bit leery of these new computerized games
you see everywhere, especially computerized keno.
You yourself once said that no one to your knowledge
have ever hit a 15 spot. I was wondering if there
would be any correlation between no one ever hitting
a long shot keno ticket, and the computer knowing
in advance what numbers that you are playing? Skip
T.
Ah,
Skip, that miscreant 15-spot! Chances of hitting this
critter are about 428 billion to one. Or how about this
beast they call the "Special Bonus" ticket;
hitting 19 out of 20. Try the improbable odds of two
quadrillion, 946 trillion, 096 billion, and 780 million
to one. To cash in on this dour dog, you would have
to play one keno ticket per second, 24 hours a day,
365 days a year. And then, according to laws of probability,
you will catch 19
out of 20 once every
93,420,116 years. If you are a player of such yuck,
I hope your genetic traits include longevity; you're
looking at a lifetime-with no sleep-a hundred thousand
times the length of Methuselah's record setter.
Now come on, Skip, with such a built-in advantage,
why would the casino (or the slot machine owners)
even entertain the thought of blatant dishonesty.
They don't need to double-cheat you to win; they
use simple math to ensure that they will win in
the end. All casino games-table as well as slot,
mind you-assure the "house percentage"
by reducing the payoffs when you win. Long shot
15-spot keno tickets are no exception to this rule.
Because your question involved keno, allow me to
do some fifth grade 'rithmetic to explain how easy
it is for the casino to dip into your billfold without
the pickpocket's shabby illegitimacy.
In Keno, the house picks 20 numbers between 1 and
80. You, by repeating your personal mantra and then
lunging into an uneducated guess, predict which
of those numbers will appear. For example, suppose
you make a one-dollar, one-spot wager that the number
25 is going to emerge. Again, pop quiz 'rithmetic
proves that your chances of winning are 1 in 4 (=
20 divided by 80 = 25% ). Now if the game had no
house edge, and the number you picked (25) was a
winner, how much should you have gotten back? The
correct answer is $4. But hold on, Skippy, the casino
is only going fork over three buckaroos.
This, in its simplest form, is the concept of the
house percentage. The casino figures out the true
odds of the game, then pay you less than those true
odds. In my example, you only won $3 when the true
odds dictated that you should have won $4. This
calculates to a colossal 25% house percentage. And
with a casino edge on a one spot at 25%, you will
lose $25 for every $100 you wager. Pick more numbers,
like a 15 spot, and well, you should be getting
the picture by now..........
One more thing, Skip. The casino does not need a
25% house edge to legally hack though your pocketbook.
Casino owners can sleep comfortably on just a 5%
return without the aid of SLEEPY-BYE-OL. They know
that in the long run you will flip them $5 for every
$100 you wager . Fortunately though, avid readers
of this column (can't speak for the forgetful) only
make wagers that have less than a 2% casino advantage.
So, Skip, as for the casino defrauding you by twiddling
the slot: fuhgeddaboutit! Concern yourself more
with game selection.
