As it turns out, I was incorrect in my thought that
the 78s was the favorite, but not by much. The AK
hands tie almost 50% of the time and the 78s wins
just under 46% of the time. So my next question
is: If you were the player holding the 78s, would
you play this hand the same way as the player above?
Of course many of you are saying that this is an
easy fold pre-flop, and I can't argue with that
line of reasoning, because you would have no way
of knowing that you would be getting 2 to 1 on your
money.
However, when I am in a position to get 2 to 1 on
my money and I am only slightly less than a 1 to
1 favorite, I will put my money in the pot every
time. Of course to be willing to do this, you have
to accept the fact that you will be out of the tournament
over 50% of the time, but when you do win, (remember
that you will about 46% of the time) you have put
yourself in a very strong position by tripling your
chip stack.
Of course if there had been only one caller and
he or she had any pocket pair eight or above, the
odds would have been much worse than above. However,
once you factor in the possibility that everyone
will fold to the all in bet, it still wasn't a terrible
play for a player on a short stack.
In summary, the answers to the two questions above
deserve some in depth thought, especially the second
one. Decide if you would risk your tournament life
on the situation, and you will have another piece
of the puzzle solved on your way to greatness. Until
next week, good luck at the tables! (And may all
of your 46% draws hit this week.
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