Still analyzing signatures
is a technique of play that might be able to change
the edge in our favor. It’s worth a try. In
any series of decisions, it is easy to find the
“average” distance of a dealer’s
spins from decision to decision. Just add up the
distance of each spin and divide by the total number
of spins. Unfortunately, this is not the same as
finding a signature. What we want to know is if
the dealer’s average is within the confines
of, say, one-third of the wheel. That is to say,
will the dealer spin the ball in such a way that
it tends to land within a nine to 12 pocket grouping
consistently?
Looking at the double-zero
roulette wheel, let us say that on spin number one
the dealer picks the ball up from the 00 pocket
and spins it so that it winds up in the 12 pocket,
five pockets away. On his next spin, he picks the
ball up from the 12 pocket and spins it so that
it lands in the 6 pocket, five pockets away from
the 12. Finally on this third spin, he lands it
in the 23 pocket -- another five pockets away. The
dealer’s signature here would be five. Of course,
three spins of the wheel is not enough to determine
without a doubt that a dealer has a signature, but
for purposes of a glaring example it is sufficient.
Since the last number that hit was 23, we would
now bet on 9 -- five pockets away. In the best of
all possible worlds, the dealer would again spin
the ball in such a way that it would land in our
9 -- five pockets away.
In the real world, as opposed to the world of our
roulette dreams, we would never see a perfect signature.
What we would want to find is a dealer who places
the ball more than a third of the time within a
12 pocket grouping an average distance away. Let
us say that the dealer is able to hit a 12 number
grouping, one half of the time. In this way, we
would bet those 12 numbers (12 units), lose half
the time (-12 units), win half the time because
one of our 12 numbers hit (which means we lose 11
units on the numbers that didn’t hit) but win
35 units on the number that did hit for a net win
of 24 units (35-11 = 24). Therefore, in two spins
we are ahead 12 units or six units per spin. We
would soon own the casino. Naturally, we would take
any kind of win, even one unit per spin. Thus, if
the dealer were able to hit our 12 pockets three
times every eight spins we would average 1.5 units
per spin as a win (lose 12, lose 12, lose 12, lose
12, lose 12, win 35-11, win 35-11, win 35-11 = 12
units = +1.5 units per spin).
The dealer signature
should be pronounced enough to be noticed relatively
fast -- it should be the John Hancock of roulette,
readily noticeable on a first reading! [A great
new book is out that goes a long way towards proving
the existence of dealers who can change the game
by their spins. It’s Christopher Pawlicki’s
Get the Edge at Roulette: How to Predict Where the
Ball Will Land!
Good
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