Dear Mark, In simple layman's terms, exactly what
do you mean by "odds?" I find it sometimes very confusing. Linda R.
You
are not alone, Linda; many folks run afoul of "odds"-- partly because
the word has been kidnapped and put to a somewhat distorted use that blurs the
difference between true odds and what the casino pays to a winning bettor. Essentially,
true odds express the likelihood that something will happen. Say you have a sack
with 5 apples in it, one each of five different varieties, and you challenge brother
Burt to reach in and blindly pull out one of a specified variety, a Granny Smith
for example.
He has
one chance in five of succeeding, and four chances
of failing. If you were betting on the outcome,
he'd owe you a buck if he failed, and you'd owe
him four bucks if he succeeded. But if you were
a casino and had to make money over the long haul,
you'd have to pay him less than what the true
odds called for - $3.50, for example. And the use
of the word "odds" in connection with
that sort of diminished payoff does lend to confusion.
But, Linda, understand one thing; the casino "odds"
are always, repeat, always, in favor of the house.
To illustrate, the casino's take on a slot
machine can be as high as 30%. This means that on
a slot machine that holds 30%, if you bet $100,
you can expect to walk away with only $70.
The more you play, Linda, the more you will lose.
Granted, some gamblers do occasionally win and are
temporarily ahead even on a tight
machine that holds such a high percentage, but in
the long run the casino "odds" will prevail,
and the gambler will lose.
Before I shuffle: Next week I am going to share
an exception to that rule. I know a person, her
name is Kimmy, who actually won 47 times in a
row in a casino, and I saw much of it with my own,
lasik-enhanced eyes. It's documented, so stay tuned.
